SINO-PAK STRATEGIC RELATIONSHIP AND ITS IMPLICATION ON INDIA:

Dear all.

( Excerpt of my lecture to a Major in Indian Army for his Staff Exam )

Strategic relationships between nations evolved as a  tool in geo-politics, mainly after the cold war. Countries till then had formed military alliances like the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the WARSAW PACT, mainly with a strategic intent of protecting the ‘’world order’’ based on the ideology of - Communism v/s Capitalism - . Such alliances were centred around the super powers of those times namely the Soviet Union and the United States.

The end of the twentieth century witnessed tumultuous changes in geopolitics and the political economy of the world. The Spread a market economy model into traditional socialist economies like India and China resulted in the emergence of these countries as centres of growth. The spread of the internet and flow of talent added to this process. The Emergence of religious extremism, especially with a pan-Islamic appeal which engulfed the globe starting with the collapse of the world trade centre made terrorism a global threat. At this juncture, strategic alliances between nations became  an effective tool in geo political manoeuvring. 

It was on the basis of the above developments that International relations shaped the world order in the twenty-first century with India and China emerging as economic powers. The economic growth of India resulted in an acknowledgement of its democracy and shared values with the democratic west. The emergence of global terrorism with its epicentre in Pakistan - Afghanistan belt shifted the strategic dialogue between the  US -led western world and India. China’s emergence as an economic power had a strategic significance due to its reinforcing its interests in the South China Sea posing a threat to Americas strategic interest in the Pacific. The Leverage of Chinese manufacturing in the US market with a burgeoning trade deficit in favour of China has also provided for a strategic re-thinking in US policy towards India. With the US tilting to India, China  followed a balancing act of aligning with Pakistan.

Having set the background of a post-cold war  Indo- US entente and its impact on Pakistan- China relations let us analyse the intent of an SINO-PAK Strategic engagement. Having failed all its military misdemeanours with India, the Pakistan policy of military engagement with India was through the proxy wars. This begins with engaging anti-India forces by providing Logistic and resource support to them. Indian Islamic extremists, Kashmiri separatists and the growing web of a terrorist network  in the Af-Pak region were directed by Pakistan  into an anti -India engagements with the latest being the attack on the Pathankot airbase in the beginning of the new year. With a democratic Pakistan and its public policy having little say in its military engagements, India is gasping with an anti- terror proactive strategy with its only recourse being diplomatic dialogue.

On the background of its strained historic relationship and border problems, China considers India as a threat both economically and militarily with the Indo -US axis like – read the  2008 INDO-Nuclear deal-   exasperating the same. This has resulted in a Sino- Pakistan strategic relationship as an effective counter strategy to contain India.  Having tied up India in proxy wars,  an alliance with China provided Pakistan access to Chinese nuclear technology enabling it to be capable in delivering nuclear-powered ballistic missiles at India. On the Chinese side, they did get access to the Karakoram range which resulted in a 1500 km highway between Gilgit  region  in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir to the Xinjiang region in China referred as the new silk route which gives China access to Pakistan. Pakistan also has recently allowed China to access its Gwadar port. A pipeline connecting this port parallel to the silk route entering China is also planned  which will enable China, ensure its oil supply in case of India blocking  the Indian ocean region for Chinese supply from the middle east in case of a conflict. This Port led Strategic engagement with Pakistan and similar exercise of Chinese submarines docking in Colombo port should be of concern to India. This SINO-PAK strategic engagement with a win -win situation has an origin when Pakistan laid the foundation of diplomatic relations with China in 1951 and for China, this engagement is not only centred on India but also to contain growing US interest in the region.

The Significance of this relationship is manifold. On the strategic and military perspective in a conventional war with Pakistan, China can play a major support role in finance, logistics and diplomacy. China can also use Pakistani soil for a Pakistan military thrust into India in case of heightened tension between India and China. On containing the US influence in the region, China can use Pakistan in influencing its US Policy as a counter to US muscle-flexing in the South China sea. The recent involvement of China in the Pakistan – Afghanistan dialogues is a pointer

The impact on India is both economic and military. While China is claiming that it will maintain a balanced approach in its relationship with India and Pakistan, for India such claims can’t be taken for granted. Securing of the Indian Ocean from Chinese and Pakistani influence and building up the Blue water navy should be a priority with an eastern and western fleet containing these two nations. The Build-up of strategic engagement with South Asian nations and Japan is another move which India need to harp upon. A decisive counter-terrorism policy against Pakistan with short pursuit options need to be worked upon.

Sanyasi

A book review , few thoughts, and a new year wish to middle aged friends.

Dear middle aged men and women,

In Ancient India , human life was  caricatured as a  four- fold cycle, beginning with Shaishavam (infant- 0 to 5 years) Balyam (Child- 5-15 years), Yauvanam (Youth- 15 to 60) and Vardhkayam (old age).  However in any of the  literatures  of those period , there is a no mention of an intervening  period called the Mid Life , a period of massive turnaround that we all experience as we cross the forty year mark. It is only from western literature that we come across this term called middle age or a crisis associated to this.

Middle age among men and women is doubted as a  phase when there is a marked change in their Physiological and Psychological set up. It evolves from a time when they feel that they have reached a peak in their life path. It is also a time when people do introspection  on what they have achieved till then and develop a future course of action.

If you want to ponder more on this subject, David Bainbridge’s book MIDDLE AGE -A Natural History is worth reading. As a veterinary anatomist from Cambridge University, he has given an insightful picture on middle age, in the background of modern evolutionary biology and neuro- psychiatry.

Bainbridge begins his essay with his  passive theory of ageing named   Antagonistic Pleiotrophy  where genes which promote breeding among the young will perpetuate degeneration at an older age. This means that the genes that activate the sex hormones during reproductive stage play a role in body degeneration in the post reproductive age. His second passive theory is ‘’disposable soma theory ‘’ where our bodies (soma) become disposable after the reproductive stage, which means that the natural selection promotes, body rejuvenation only as long as you are capable to reproduce. Such anthropological studies on ageing and its genetic nature makes us argue that middle age is not a modern construct but existed among humans since millions of years.

Bainbridge also says that this is a time when there is a change in the psychological continuity  of  our lives, giving us a feeling of speeding up of time and a fragility in our mental view of life. Bainbridge argues that the changes in our world view during the middle age are attributed to the change in sexuality or the biologically induced play of the fundamental reproductive forces on human body and its adaptation to the newer environment.

Among women,  middle age proceeds to a virtual switch off in their reproductive capabilities and among males there is a general decline in sexual indices like sperm count and sexual productivity.  Middle age in women is a precursor to an upcoming menopause while for men it results in a condition called andropause which results in significant reduction in the production of testosterone in their bodies. 

However, this  book is not just a sagging story of middle - aged people but also analysis the positive transformation taking place in a person’s life during the Middle Age.  He says that this period is not an end but beginning of a new paradigm in the sexual chemistry of individuals beyond the realm of reproduction. Sex becomes much of self-expression and discovery than a method for reproduction which he says, is seen only among human beings .  This may explain why men chases bikes and young women and make frantic effort for body building and other youth regaining measures.

Accordingly for  Bainbridge natural selection gives men a chance to start a new  family, while among woman it leads to a syndrome called ‘’Mother Hypothesis. This syndrome affects near -menopausal women in their early forties where their sexual energies are more spent nurturing young ones making them grow up as mature adults only to reach an empty nest syndrome when the kids leave home.

Where does this change in the genetic clock of life lead to? The answer is a mix of negatives and positives. During this middle age, negative effects of divorces, extra marital relations and other marital discords co exists along with a newer level of camaraderie among couples who rediscover a newer meaning for their life. The trauma of an empty nest syndrome among women also leads to their entering the work force again while men start withdrawing from the daily job routine.

The question is, if this is a universal human syndrome why did this concept not been echoed in any of the eastern, spiritual and psychological discourses? Indian literature mentions of a ‘’periods of wisdom’’ in a person’s life where the fighting Kshatriya warrior becomes a coach for the young ones and refrains from fighting. Beyond this there is no mention of this situation, may be because of the formidable impact of patriarchy and Brahmanical  traditions of our society.

It is also argued by a section of left leaning  sociologists   that the so called Middle age crisis is a myth and was only a ’’ crisis’’ created by the western media  in the early fifties. After the great depression in the early part of the twentieth century, by the 50s and 60s, a wealthy middle age population emerged in the developed nations. Waning colonialism and spread of industrial revolution resulted in the growth of a class of healthy middle aged men and women whose financial independence made them being experimental in breaking conventional notions of contracted sexual relations. This perhaps created an upswing in middle age promiscuity which the western media caricatured as a Middle age crisis.

Irrespective of those  arguments on whether it is a myth or reality,  middle age is an opportunity for introspection on the path that we have taken  and build a new paradigm of our growth. For men it might mean leaving your daily job and experimenting on your passion or engaging in a new profession, business or taking a sabbatical. For women it is an opportunity to re start their careers after a child rearing period and feel more independent and wanting. It is a period of experimentation on our life objectives, even redefining our notion of love, relationships,  career and engages ourselves in search for newer pastures.

After all as Frank Natale  wrote in  his book Wisdom of midlife: reclaim your passion, power and purpose, “Middle age is not the beginning of decline, but a time to reach for the highest in our selves. It is a pause to re-examine what we have done and what we will do in the future. This is the time to give birth to our power.”

As this year dawn on you wishing all my middle aged friends who are somewhere between 40 and 55 , a new year where they discover their power, passion and purpose.

Sanyasi

Need for a De Globolized National Economic Model : A centrist view:

Dear friends

Terry Eagleton is a British Academician of repute with a leftist orientation in his economic thinking. His book on ‘’ Why Marx was right” is thought provoking in the context of the current economic turmoil. The neo-liberal principles of de regulation, free market and capital de control are the fundamentals of the new economic order being practised in many nations. This economic order along with the impact of modern information technology created what is now called as globalization, breaking down barriers between geographically dispersed markets. Globalization resulted in internationalization of trade, production, investment and capital movements. The purpose of this article is not to have a discourse on globalization (as I am neither a critic nor a votary of it ) but to focus on the turbulences that we are experiencing from the world markets  and its consequent impact on the Indian economy .

In the twentieth century we saw the great divide between the Socialists who believed that through the dictatorship of the Proletariat, wealth can be redistributed,  while the Capitalist believed the same can be achieved  through  free markets and enterprise .  Social and Political developments in the later part of the twentieth century resulted in the triumph of the capitalist leading to the establishment of the so called new economic world order. Markets, production, demand and consumption shifted to Asia   resulting in the emergence of India and China as   consumption and production centres respectively. By the twenty first century technology started transforming economic life and ensured free flow of capitals across market breaking geographical time lags. India became the service corridor of the world market especially in the area of IT enabled services and China a  manufacturing backyard and both economies started growing significantly . Buoyant by their huge foreign exchange surpluses and government stimulus and domestic demand, India and China were able to keep up its growth momentum and survive the financial meltdown which had engulfed world economies in 2009.

The conventional economic model of the free capital had its own irrationality when we saw the Asian Crisis of 1998  , the Mexican Pizza crisis called Tequila crisis in 1994 which were all the consequences arising from  flight of capital. The recession of 2009  had its origin in the sub prime crisis in the US when the capitalist financiers used debts and mortgage tools  to invest  their capital and failed attempts for refinancing the debts. In all these cases respective governments had to pump in tax payers’ money to re-establish the order.

You may ask what all of this has to do with India. Though still an import driven economy with a minuscule share in the world mercantile trade  , foreign Institutional investors hold above 30 % of our Stock market which  resulted in wealth creation for large stock holders albeit at the risk of wealth erosion. However how many of the 125 crore people in this country hold stocks and trade in them and make money. Only a few, but the country’s population depending on Jobs will have an impact as flight of capital will affect the Indian Industries’ capability for capital investment and creation of jobs. Moreover government may have to resort to providing stimulus to entice industries to invest which has an indirect consequence on tax outgo. The point made here is that the global capitalist order nicely christened as the new world order is indeed creating growth and wealth but in a country like India the million dollars question is that whether the growth is egalitarian in nature. To quote    Eagleton ‘’ It  is a crazed notion that a single global system known as the free market can impose itself on the most diverse cultures and economies and cure all their ills’’. The great economist of the twentieth century John Maynard Keynes in the aftermath of the great depression of the 1930 had also warned that global capitalism can result in spurt of unemployment affecting demand in the economic system creating a recessionary trend. We saw this in 2009 when jobs were lost and demand suppressed resulting in the UPA government resorting to delivery of stimulus packages .
 Of late the turbulences in the Chinese economy, and the de valuation of their currency did have a rippling effect on India’ s stock market and currency value and it is not wrong in stating that India is still in the roller coaster ride , even though domestic demand is  driving our growth story.

The larger objective of this essay is not for a doom saying but for understanding India and its need for an egalitarian growth model, rather than the conventional new world order model which governments have been following since last many years. The India growth story is bound to create more disparity and gap between the rich and the poor. If you read the recent world health report prepared by Capgemini and RBC wealth management, it speaks of the rise in Indian millionaires to 1.95 Lakh individuals making India the 11^th largest in terms of number of millionaires. This category has risen from 1.56 Lakh in 2013 - a near 25 % increase in two years. In contract to this picture, what is the percentage of reduction in poverty in the same period? It is your guess because you can’t trust the government numbers which are politically motivated….. A recent testimony is the data on applications made by youngsters in the Indian State of UP alone for the post of ‘’peons’’ (low grade government servants)  in the Government service. A staggering 1.5 lakh people applies for 350 odd positions of peons which will fetch them a meagre salary of $ 250 per month. It was reported that there were a significant number of PhDs also among the applicants . The number of educated unemployed in UP along is estimated to be more than 15 lakhs. This is just the story of one state in India. The central government recruitments by Union Public service commission for nearly 1200 seats in the class ‘A’ government service is attracting 4.5 lakh educated youths in India. Where does the unsuccessful go? The McKinsey report on India’s economic geography has predicted a major deficiency in skill and employability of India’s youth in the coming times. The employability and skill deprivation among India’s youth has also resulted in youths resorting to violent collective bargaining for reservations on government jobs as like in the recent uprising of the Patel community in Gujarat. A case in point is also the recent trade Union strike and the one rank one pension(OROP) agitation among the defence personal where interest groups largely bargain for government largesse in an economic geography of rich becoming richer and the poor poorer. This trend is bound to continue and the gap skewing widely as our growth only creates millionaires and an indulgent middle class who now governs our economy and polity. The other trend lies in side-lining agro reforms by undermining our burgeoning need for food in a climate changing world .Traditional agricultural labourers are finding no scope in agricultural   engagement and is instead migrating to urban areas for work. This is in addition to the no of disguised unemployed in the agricultural economy. These uneducated youths from the agriculture sector clubbed with the educated unemployed faces the greatest economic challenge for India.

In a paper abstract that I read Converging Crises: reality, Fear and Hope by Prof Susan George of  the Transnational Institute in Amsterdam I read this concept of re-localization or de- globalization where she talks about regulation and re distribution of wealth by a welfare state. The terminology of re localization echoes the swadeshi jargon from one of our political spectrum. Do we need more millionaires at the cost of the starving lot, what is the mechanism which will ensure that the wealth created is percolated down . Eventually how do we address issues of collective and egalitarian growth rather than being proud of our burgeoning millionaires and middle classes? Will we be able to make the MARKET the MAKER of our Destiny or the MASTER of our destiny?

Addressing these issues are more important than being myopic hearing the myriad growth stories from self-indulgent interest groups. 

Sanyasi

Crying babies get Milk:

Dear all,

The prime minister''s independence day speech was disappointing to most of the ex service men . According to them the PM did not deliver what he had promised to them during the elections. Yes,  I mean the one rank one pension scheme (OROP) . The TV channels  showed flocks of ex service men predominantly people from Punjab, Himachal and Haryana cursing the PM as a traitor. We all know that it is easy to make election promises but when it comes to implementation , reality strikes. The same is the case with OROP . This is a great idea in principle , but the cost to exchequer is said to be nearly Rs 10000 Crore . Who will bill this ?

Lets now go to Bihar. Our PM has now gone and pledged around Rs 1.3 Lakh Crore for Bihar's development. Well,  I do not know whether the learned people from Bihar will bite the bait or whether they too will have to go for a Dharna later. Time and the election results will speak.

The larger point here is about the culture of freebies and rent seeking  by interest groups. This has been part of India's body- politic since long and  have  made   large Vote banks  .

Is nt  this at the cost of others ? . Guys I am not being  parochial. You go to a  railway station , airport and any Central Government office , don''t you get a larger taste of Hindi, Bihar and the stench from the cow belt. I am afraid I don't see any diversity here. ( except the occasional face of some dark coloured Southees or marathees in the CISF security team at Mumbai airport). I don't have numbers to throw and prove statistics but the point is that there seems to be a  collective bargaining and a reciprocal political blessing based on election needs,  be it from UPA or NDA. ( In fact both seems to be two parts of the same coin). If Bihar can claim Rs 1.3 Lakh crore (if at all it happens ) why not Orissa , Bengal and Telengana. Are'nt  they also underdeveloped. The resource pledging seems to skew unequally over the geography of India particularly away from the  South and East;

Well that is for you to think , but what worries me is on the tax that I pay. I don''t mind that the tax taken from me is given to the right people or if the government comes up with some schemes which percolates my income down the pyramid, but what annoys me is that I don't want my tax to be pledged for votes .

Anyway as somebody said crying babies  always have milk. That is what democracy is for. Jai Hind:

Sanyasi

Shake In India

Dear all

India’s intelligentsia consists of an equal proposition of liberals, moderates and conservatives. Among them, I was proud to call myself a moderate because  I always tried to advocate a balanced view, away from the leftist lineage of our liberals and the conservatism of the right wing. I believed that extreme positions, be it from the right or left, emanated from an intellectual conservatism which is antithetical to the existence of a complex society as like ours. Hence my strong conviction was moderates occupy a saintly position in our intellectual discourse balancing the extremes.

The current debate on the ‘’Porn Ban”’ made the moderate in me to respond as I found that the frenzied lamentations of  sex starved liberals have gone overboard forcing the  government   hitherto recalcitrant,   backtrack  under pressure . While conservatives feel that porn is against Indian culture and viewing it denigrated and disparaged their value systems, the liberals feel the ban infringed their personal freedom. So where does the moderates fit into. Let us see…

Surveys shows that digital India stands fourth in the world in terms of porn traffic of which 35 percentage comprises of women. The vociferous lamentations of women in the social and print media prove that women too were affected parties and pornography is not just a male thing. So when one conservative from the civil society got his Public Interest Litigation  heard by the Supreme Court the moral police was quick to act and these men and women pulled up their underwear and came crying out against the ban. Victory of the liberals

Pornography and Prostitution are nothing but the software and hardware of a sexual release system developed by human beings to balance out the stress erupting from an unnatural monogamy necessitated on them.

While the former gives a virtual experience the latter gives a real experience to satiate the cardinal desires of millions of men and women on earth. 

Pornography like Prostitution existed from the beginning of society if not in digital format but in sculpture and paintings. However whenever society became conservative they banned it and closed their eyes saying that it does not exist while liberals accepted it as a social necessity. 

Both ways the fact is,  that it is a social dichotomy and an unavoidable nuisance. Inculcating a culture of discipline and control is necessary where instead of banning it, advocating the ill effects of it on our individual and social persona is the need of the hour. This is my moderate view. 

After all along with MAKE IN INDIA we too need to SHAKE IN INDIA.

Historians the Great

Dear all

In their search for Greatness our historians  till now have identified only three Great rulers, viz Alexander, Asoka and Akbar. Alexander was considered great because he conquered the world at a young age; Asoka became Great became he became an apostle of peace after the bloody war at Kalinga. But what for Akbar?.  Maybe he tried to create an integrated Hindu- Muslim society through his cocktail religion called  Din-i-llahi. However now when our home minister says that Maharaja Ranapratab singh was also great, questions ponders my mind, on what makes a ruler so great. Is it war or its spoils?

Professional historians have told me that a king is considered great when he has made exemplary achievements   including victories and displayed path breaking leadership initiatives benefiting humanity. Even if I accept this argument from the left leaning historians, my conclusion is that only Asoka fits into this  slot because of his dedication  to the cause of Buddhist  Dhamma ( non-violence and righteousness)  which eventually spread the religion of Buddhism in the Indian sub-continent . On the other hand the motive of Alexander and Akbar was mere strategic in nature. Akbar according to me had to display  a ‘’ secular ‘’ mindset as a strategic reason to align the Rajput’s to his side.

While on the right side of the debate, is the new set of scholars  from the Indian Council of Historic Research who after taking cues from the Home minister, is trying to portray the valor of Ranapratap Singh to be christened as Great. Well , then we have a list of warriors who showed remarkable valor and determination from the annuls of history.  Maharashtrians will call for Sivaji the Great, Punjabis will say Maharaja Ranjitsingh  the great and the humble Malayalee in me  will shout Veluthambi Dalawa and Pazasi Raja the Great.

So why open up a Pandora’s box and historians taking positions  and in the process becoming  politicians . Because  historians re  Great…

Sanyasi

Female Attire: Food for Thought:

Dear Friends

 Few months back, playback singer K J Yesudas opined that,    women by wearing jeans disturbed men .His statement sparked a controversy in Kerala resulting in an FIR filed against him.  Recently , a similar hullabaloo was created  in Gujarat when a female mayor of Rajkot   suggested , to some  girl students,  not to wear tight fitting jeans as it is against  ‘Indian Culture ‘. Prior to such comments from noted personalities, there were instances of right wing fringe groups making similar remarks, on the female attire and its link to rising incidence of rapes in India. The female jeans and the issue of moral policing have always been food for fodder for feminists and liberals flocks. Their   TV debates    resembling   the fish markets of sub urban Mumbai, are almost a daily feature.

The female attire precipitating carnal desires on weak  veined men, resulting in the insensible among them loose control and attempting rape is  not just the fear of today. This issue confronted all patriarchs   since time immemorial. During  medieval times   women in India wore   loin cotton cloths paving way for their abduction and enslavement by invaders. The tradition of women from northern India covering their face sideways was  imposed by society as a safeguard from such abductions. Even the sari clad women were deemed ‘’sexy’’ by men of yesteryear and this  eventually resulted in the entry of the safe Salwar Kameeze into the Punjab plains. Unfortunately this loose drape have conquered the lands beyond the Vindhya mountains , into deep forests  that  even the adivasi  dames  from attapadi  in Kerala wears it -forbidding  the chance of seeing  those black beauties  with their bare  boobs -

There was a debate among the social circles of 19^th century Malabar , on whether   nair and other sudra  women should be allowed to wear rouka - a  loin cloth covering the breast - as hitherto upper caste  namboothiris  never allowed them to cover their breasts . In a caste ridden society of those times only the upper caste namboothiri  women were allowed to wear  rouka  which was the ancient version of  our present day braziers. The lower caste women were not allowed to wear the rouka apparently as a matter of discrimination and differentiation not to mention of the plush and lascivious sights it provided to upper caste Hindu men.  From studying  the ancient frescoes it is amply  clear that the present day female jacket is a new social construct based on those hidden sensibilities echoed by Yesudas  and others.

In the western world, till the Victorian times, women’s clothing were poised to be elegant and grand , aimed to  communicate  a social standing and generate  respect from men . The women depicted in Jane Austins’s  novels conveyed such a   value system . The post 20^th century consumerist culture connected women’s dress to male desire for the promotion of goods and services.   Recollect the panty clad IPL cheer girls and chinki models adoring  Japanese cars during an Auto show . Recollect your peeping between the legs of that defunct Kingfisher air hostesses from your aisle seat. It is a fact that knickers always gave that kick and modern day women's  clothing is meant for creating desire in men and envy among fellow women. If this  is the change seen today why not we accept it rather than creating a   rape psychosis and a moral debate

While coming back to bulging buttocks of  jeans clad bharatiya nari  and its carnal effect on men , please accept that  rule of a changeless attire  never applied to women’s clothing . It always changed in a patriarchal society the way men felt about it. At this  time when there is a conflict between tradition and modernity such moral debates shall  continues to exist.

Finally the bulged bottom, whether it is a protruded septic tank, or a piece of art or an object of desire depends  on the beholder and let us leave the choice to their  eyes. Social  changes are  ceaseless and no one can stop it .The debate ends there …Period:

Sanyasi