Sabarimala Imbroglio

Among all the judgements of the supreme court what has mattered the most in Kerala in recent times is the  Sabarimala temple judgment.  The argument about the ‘’tradition followed need to respected’’ versus the issue of gender rights have now spread to the street, paradoxically led by women themselves Political parties like the BJP which initially supported the judgement has now turned topsy-turvy. The ruling left front is in a quagmire as it knows that deviating too much from the believer’s fold will cost them dearly.

While there have been innumerable debates on the veracity of this tradition what matters is that this judgement has made people question the principle of jurisprudence. As the dissenting Judge Indu Malhotra said can rationality be brought into matters concerning religion?. Another matter of interest for students of law is that on whether tradition or civil rights which one is important. The majority judgement in the court has taken the view that right comes first.

Unlike earlier judgments, in this case, it has opened up a Pandora's box unlike the verdict in the Haji Ali or the Shani Shinganapur cases. The reason is not that it touches the basic belief of the believers but the critical and reactionary mindset of the Malayalee. If belief was the cornerstone of reaction then this schism could have happened in the Shani temple as well.

British jurisprudence which our judiciary has inherited is based on the principle of equality liberty and justice but not on faith or culture and is reflected in our fundamental rights. Looking through that kaleidoscope majority of the judges found that banning an entry violates a right and hence struck it down. The critics argue that the specificity of this particular temple deity which has its own identity and personality need to have been taken into consideration. They say that in the context of this temple the deity is worshipped as a Nastika Brahmachari and the deity ’s personal wish is the basis and belief of the temple tradition which needs to be respected as the deity’s right. Ayyapan has the right to not see menstruating women in his premises and his wish is the belief of his devotees. Well, this rigmarole has resulted in a review petition and let us see how it unfurls.

In my view, the court has stirred a hornet’s nest. The issue of right needs to be looked in the context whether it results in an individual or social pain to the affected . Here it was not that case. As  Juggi Vasudev sarcastically said, will not baring me from a women’s toilet violates my right? What was missed is in the analysis of the fact, that rights too have its own rights set up in its own context and can't be generalized. Justice Indu malhotra stands vindicated. 

Swamy sharanam

Back to Basics: Article 497 and the new paradigms

I am a woman and the most that I can get to expect is a husband a good one if I am lucky and look after his children.

                                                                      Harriet a character in ‘’ Less than equals’’ by VL Beath

The recent judgement on article 497 as unconstitutional brings in a lot of thought processes which need to be analyzed. The constitutional bunch unanimously agreed that this provision should go and did not even agree for upkeeping the policy on a gender-neutral basis. Unlike the earlier masterstroke of the supreme court which scrapped article 377, this judgement has brought resentment from a section of the society. The judgement has looked into the primacy of civil rights enshrined in the constitution which is paramount to any issues of morality. However, the subtility or the impact the judgement is manifold and opens up a lot of issues for debate. Let us look into this.

Many sociological studies have been done on the institution of marriage in terms of its historicity and subsequent evolution. Frederic Engel in his magnum opus ‘’Origin of the family ‘’, cites that ancient society was predominantly matrilineal. For Engels,  primitive communism existed in an ancient society where women held the power with an enormous sexual right. However, the rise of the alienable property and men accumulating land through wars created a patrilocal residence. This led to men controlling wealth leading to control of women and thus leading to the overthrow of the mother right.

This transformation is vividly seen in the history of matrilineal families in India in particularly among the Nairs. Kathleen Gough in a paper published in 1952, in the International Archives of Ethnography mentions the decline of the mother right among the  Nairs of Kerala and young Nair males declining to be ''visiting husbands'' and seeking legal status as an husband . This later resulted in the Malabar marriage Act dissolving the matrilineal sambandham system to a patrilineal marriage system in Kerala

Patriarchic control on women’s sexual rights was stratified into a strict legal frame work by the British who were influence by the missionary seal and Victorian Christian values of female chastity and male control.  Brahmanic Kanyadan system prevailed in its own ugly form of female suppression, the custom called smarthavicharam in Kerala for instance . The adulterous brahmin women in a family was questioned by self-proclaimed caste judges called smarthans who banished the women and her cohort which further made her life worth not living. It may be recalled that the famous MG Ramachandran erstwhile Chief minister of Tamil Nadu  was the son of a Melakath Gopal Menon who was banished from the region based on a smartha vicharam conducted in 1903. His lover’s - a brahmin women-  plight is not even known but imaginable.

Article 497 evolves from such an archaic Brahmanical and patriarchal mindset evolved  in   the 19^th century and structured into a  legal framework by white men grown in the cubicle of a Victorian mindset. India’s post Victorian executive and legal luminaries always favored the majoritarian mind set. By the end of the 20^th century, this Victorian and Brahmanical mindset later formed the basis of what was then called as the middle class value system. A middle-class Indian man was somebody who kept his wife in control through economic subordination. While women need to educated and presentable she was not supposed to go to work and be independent . Even in todays middle class , men prefers a women who does not work or having less salaries than him. His ego is bruised if his wife go places and deal with men and earned more money. 

Data from divorce cases among married women prove that expression of a women’s freedom in her house hold has been the cause of acrimony where the husband expected her to be a sati Savitri making food at home raising the kids and looking after his parents. Female sexual dysfunction, boredom and maltreatment have made married women seek paramours which in fact is the failure of the man but not of his woman. A study conducted by the online health magazine lancet says half of the married women who commit suicides in India has sexual violence, dissatisfaction and sexual incompatibility with the husband as reasons. We need to see the looming issue of marital rape  in this background.  Abolition of article 497 thus gives the right message to married men.

The issue of morality and sacredness of the institution of marriage has been set aside by the courts and individual rights have been made paramount in this judgement. Indian marriage system had  never accepted this equality and the  fact that  love depletes if not loved and cared was ignored by men by the support of this law. Further, the institutionalized nature , patriarchal backing  and the support of the law ( read 497 ) undermined the plight of the caged women. Conjugal loyalty is to be earned not demanded is what this judgement speaks about, in fact, this will lead our society into a new paradigm of marital life.

Development of technology and access to the social media has paved way for men and women to seek solace in platonic friendships which leads to emotive relationships later. As per the India today ’s sex survey such extra marital relationships are rampant and common at least in middle-class urban India . Will this lead to a destruction of the sacred marital system and chaos in the society . I would say no. this in fact will make couples feel more responsible and caring to each other. A realization among men that there is always a sperm in waiting to fertilize the egg will make him make him more possessive and caring. If he realizes it is good or the natures law will prevail. 

Sanyasi

The Economic Spiral of '' Acha din '' and our Marie Antoinettes in Delhi:

Mitro, 

During this time when the Indian economy is passing through a roller coaster ride ,it is interesting to note politicians becoming economists and vice versa. However in this process of politicization of economics the reality is lost. The innumerable WhatsApp messages TV debates and now the opposition bandh are points to the fact that politics dominates economics .  At this juncture we need to understand the pure economic issues  faced by us through a nonpolitical lens and then see its political impacts

India’s economic growth is now around 8.3  %  in this quarter . So anybody can ask why the economic woos now. We  need to be understood that the current growth in the economy is fueled by consumption and not by production. The demand side is growing without proportionate  supply. The increase in demand or in other words increase in public spending is fueled by the sedimentation of the GST/Demonetization hiccup. People are ready to spend and cash is back post demonetization  (this is another controversial subject as to Why and How cash is back, which is not in the purview of this discussion and hence omitted ) and  GST rates are almost settled  . So the demand is back . Now  the supply has to match to this  with either increase in the capacity utilization of the manufactured product base or by formation of additional capital into product and services . Capital formation can happen if there is sufficient credit growth. Unfortunately the NPA problem and the RBI monitoring is now preventing industries from risk free borrowing . So they are borrowing less and hence investing less for additional capacity . If you notice the Gross Fixed capital formation which is an indication of credit growth and capital investment (see chart 1) it  is showing  a negative growth  since 2018 beginning. So the conclusion is that we have a consumption-led growth, not capital formation led growth beginning in 2018. Unless we have a capital formation led growth we will not meet the demand domestically as well as we will not be able to create jobs:

                                                                              Chart 1

                                                                          

Now when you have more consumption it correlates to an increase in imports. This is evident from the increase in imports of metals and manufactured products. Proportionally, due to various reasons which include failure of the export policies, increase in free trade agreements, trade wars, anti-globalization-protectionist policies of major economies, our exports are diminishing. So we have an increasing import and decreasing export resulting in a widening trade balance. (See chart 2 ) So when your trade balance is widening we spend more rupees to buy the dollar and this depreciates the rupee. Moreover the strengthened and protected US economy is increasing the Fed Rates which might result in the flight of capital further weakening the rupees. 

                                                                             Chart -2

To add to this problem Brent crude oil which was trading at around $ 50/Barrel in 2017 is $ 78/Barrel when I am writing this. This is further increasing the trade balance in Re terms with impact on the Current  account deficit (see the third chart) which is expected to touch the 2.3% mark in 2018 with increasing fuel prices

                                                                                Chart -3

The government can’t control the increase in fuel cost because now administered price mechanism does not exist.With nearly 6-7 % of the cost being freight/Margins etc. the Refinery transfer price (the price at which the  Oil Marketing companies buys the product ) is widely is the cost of crude itself which is import driven. They can’t also decrease the fuel tax. Nearly 50 % of the cost is taxes which if decreased by Rs 1 will result in a loss of 14000 crores to the exchequer further worsening the CAD. This is a catch -22 situations  where laterally thought policies are required

We  can  summarize  the economic part as  following

1.      

       Our growth is consumption-led and is not creating any supply increase or job growth and in fact contributing to more imports and an increase in CAD.

2.       The above factor along with demand in dollars is weakening the rupee making import further expensive and increasing the CAD.

3.       The increase in crude prices and the dependence on fuel taxes is not allowing the government to reduce fuel rates

What is the conclusion here? 

This will lead to a spurt in further money supply and increase in the inflation. As a result, the monitory policy will try to balance this by an increase in interest rates. The increase in interest rates will further reduce credit growth and we get into a spiral of economic woos.

Now let us get into the politics of this economics. These economic cycles are agnostic to any political party in power. However, it has an impact on the future of a political party. We faced this spiral in 2014 ( analyze chart 1 and 3 ) paving way for the ‘’acha din’’. Now it is time for the next rhetoric. Whose ‘’din’’ is going to be ‘’acha” time only can say. The BJP national executive, PMO and the finance ministry have been silent till now. Do they have a plan in hand or are they becoming another Marie Antoinette ‘’ saying ‘’if not bread let them eat cake’’ In India at least the voters can decide this in  2019? 

Till then I wait for my acha din…..

Sanyasi

Mahabali's (cental goverment) Gift : Need for Fiscal incentives for Kerala State in the aftermath of the recent floods

Dear all

The floods have receded in Kerala and the Mahabali’s annual visit during the Onam day on 25^th will be marked with pain. One thing that he should be happy upon is the Unity of Keralites and the overwhelming support that its people got from other states and the central government. This reiterates  his principle of equality that he cherished during his mythical rule.

While the floods have receded, new flood gates of challenges have opened up. With nearly 50000+ homes to be reconstructed and nearly 10000 km of roads damaged, the exact cost in time, effort and money for reconstruction is horrendous. The service sector which contributes to the tune of 64% of its GDP (Kerala’s contribution to the national GDP s nearly 4 %) would require at least a year of time to recuperate and generate wealth. The orthodox estimate of reconstruction and rehabilitation(R&R) of nearly 2600 Crore is minuscule compared to the central government aid of nearly 600 crores.

It is in this context certain arguments put forward and debated needs a through thinking. Firstly whether the 700 crore pledged by the UAE is to be accepted or not. The strictures followed in the aftermath of the Tsunami by the previous government mandates a polite ''No''  to foreign aid due to diplomatic issues. While sentimentalist’s calls for acceptance of foreign aid rather than thinking of the larger manifestation are understandable, we need to think laterally on how to gap the deficit for R&R.

The non-revenue measures like construction of central government support in reconstruction through the PM Awas Yojana and NHAI taking up Road construction are all in the right direction. Similarly, the largesse of the insurance companies in providing hassle-free simple insurance claims and contemplation of soft retail loans by banks redresses the pain to a certain extent.  However the suggestion put forward by the Finance Minister of Kerala Mr Thomas Issac on charging a cess on the SGST component of the GST (the tax component in the consumption state in an intrastate trade) is for the GST council to decide opens, it opens up another Pandora’s box. Such sort of measures may be required at least for a shorter period to cater to the exigency of Kerala State but can create an argument that it will create a precedent with other states demanding so as like the recent demand for a cess for sugar to help farmers.

Every fundraising initiatives have its own constraints but what matters is how intelligent leadership tries to annul the gap and come to rescue the needy. While the misplaced pride of some Keralites  in comparing itself with social indices, CRISIL reported that Kerala is a worse off state with a higher Debt to GDP ratio( estimated to be above 30 %  and above the triggers set through the ‘’Kerala Fiscal responsibility Act 2003  ‘’ and a burgeoning Fiscal deficit to GDP ratio.

Under such circumstance when there is a crisis like situation, what matters more than the political bargaining -which the left rules state don’t have- is pragmatism and statesmanship. Hope the Central Government shows that in this case as a distressed Onam gift kerala be given fiscal incentives and prevent tharoors of Kerala from going to UN.

sanyasi