Saturday 22 February 2020

Kemcho Trump. An introspection:


      When the President of the most powerful democracy visits the land of the largest democracy, it is a significant feat due to many factors. Firstly this is the first standalone India visit of a US president while all the other seven presidents visited earlier clubbed their itinerary either as part of a south Asian tour or showed a balancing diplomacy by visiting Pakistan. Secondly unlike the rare visits during the cold war, by President Eisenhower in 1959 and Richard Nixon in 1969 or Jimmy Carter in 1978, Trump’s visit is a sequel to the increased US presidential visits to India since the post-cold war period. Even though Bills Clinton’ visit in 2000 was not much of any diplomatic achievements, the subsequent visits by George Bush, and President Obama demonstrated the strategic shift in Indo-US relations much signified by the Indo US Nuclear deal. The third important factor of significance is that today India and the US stand in partnership of equality, demonstrated by India’s economic growth and burgeoning market demands, counterweight to Chinese influence both in Business and Defence fields in the US eyes and India’s revived diplomatic role in global high table as demonstrated by Prime Minister Modi’s global outreach.

It is also imperative to mention about the softer critical element of this visit. Prime ministers Modi’s outreach to the NRIs and Indian Origin Americans estimated to be around 4 million exemplified by the ‘’Welcome Modi’’ road shows in US culminating in the recent Howdy Modi show has indeed created a ‘’US NRI Vote Bank’’  which President Trump can capitalize for his upcoming re -election. Both the leaders represent a  new globalized world order of renewed nationalistic spirit and majoritarian thought patterns. President Trump’s anti-immigrant measures, strict laws on H1B visas, building walls over Mexico and withdrawal from treaties like Paris agreement, Iran Nuclear deal and North Atlantic treaty , echoes similar to Prime Minister Modi’s measures of Make in India, Trade protectionism, stricter implementation of Foreign Exchange Management act, withdrawal from Regional comprehensive economic partnership and the most recent NRC and CAA initiatives. Needless to say both the leaders enjoy bonding and camaraderie to quote PM Modi ’’ Mai Usshe bahut seekta hu ( Iam learning a lot from him). It is also relevant to mention that Trumps visit to Ahmedabad, which is PM modi’s home turf will help President Trump to woo the influential Gujarati community which is estimated to be around 20 % of the Indo-American citizens .

While there are interest on both sides on the significance of this visit on a geo political angle,  as mentioned earlier this visit is a sequel to the engagement started by President George Bush and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in 2006. It started with the Indo-US Civil Nuclear deal which was called as 123 Agreement (Section 123 of the United States Atomic Energy Act 1954, establishes an agreement for cooperation as a prerequisite for nuclear deals between the US and any other nation). This was followed by a series of Indo –US military exercise on the background of the South China Sea dominance of China signifying a strategic shift. President Obama came as a Chief Guest for the republic day parades and supported India's aspiration for a permanent membership into the United National Security Council, India’s  temporary exception from importing oil from Iran, and India’s increased sourcing of Energy (LNG and Crude) from US after signing the strategic energy partnership bilateral treaty  are all examples of this bonhomie. It is also expected that the visit of President Trump will result in signing of a major defense deal of procurement of helicopters for the Navy. India’s defense cooperation with US has resulted in in India being elevated to Tier 1 of the strategic Trade authorization licence exception which will help India access advanced US technology.

While the strategic shift has yielded benefits to India, it also need to be evaluated on what should be India’s long term policy of engagement of US looking into India’s long standing stand of neutrality in International affairs. Is it going to be beneficial or not or is the US bonhomie with India based on the principle of opportunism. These are the issues to be looked into in India US relationships post the visit of President Trump.  The critical views held by the US senate on India’s recent actions in Kashmir and on the CAA, the US deal with the Taliban for its withdrawal from Afghanistan, and the  US relationship with Pakistan are all to be waived into our thinking before we finally conclude Kemcho Trump.

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