When the
President of the most powerful democracy visits the land of the largest
democracy, it is a significant feat due to many factors. Firstly this is the
first standalone India visit of a US president while all the other seven
presidents visited earlier clubbed their itinerary either as part of a south Asian
tour or showed a balancing diplomacy by visiting Pakistan. Secondly unlike the rare
visits during the cold war, by President Eisenhower in 1959 and Richard Nixon
in 1969 or Jimmy Carter in 1978, Trump’s visit is a sequel to the increased US presidential
visits to India since the post-cold war period. Even though Bills Clinton’
visit in 2000 was not much of any diplomatic achievements, the subsequent visits
by George Bush, and President Obama demonstrated the strategic shift in Indo-US
relations much signified by the Indo US Nuclear deal. The third important
factor of significance is that today India and the US stand in partnership of
equality, demonstrated by India’s economic growth and burgeoning market demands,
counterweight to Chinese influence both in Business and Defence fields in the
US eyes and India’s revived diplomatic role in global high table as
demonstrated by Prime Minister Modi’s global outreach.
It is also imperative to
mention about the softer critical element of this visit. Prime ministers Modi’s
outreach to the NRIs and Indian Origin Americans estimated to be around 4
million exemplified by the ‘’Welcome Modi’’ road shows in US culminating in the
recent Howdy Modi show has indeed created a ‘’US NRI Vote Bank’’ which President Trump can capitalize for his
upcoming re -election. Both the leaders represent a new globalized world order of
renewed nationalistic spirit and majoritarian thought patterns. President Trump’s
anti-immigrant measures, strict laws on H1B visas, building walls over Mexico
and withdrawal from treaties like Paris agreement, Iran Nuclear deal and North
Atlantic treaty , echoes similar to Prime Minister Modi’s measures of Make
in India, Trade protectionism, stricter implementation of Foreign Exchange
Management act, withdrawal from Regional comprehensive economic partnership and
the most recent NRC and CAA initiatives. Needless to say both the leaders enjoy
bonding and camaraderie to quote PM Modi ’’ Mai
Usshe bahut seekta hu ( Iam learning a lot from him). It is also relevant
to mention that Trumps visit to Ahmedabad, which is PM modi’s home turf will help
President Trump to woo the influential Gujarati community which is estimated to
be around 20 % of the Indo-American citizens .
While there are interest on both sides on the significance of
this visit on a geo political angle, as mentioned earlier this visit is a
sequel to the engagement started by President George Bush and Prime Minister
Manmohan Singh in 2006. It started with the Indo-US Civil Nuclear deal which
was called as 123 Agreement (Section
123 of the United States Atomic Energy Act 1954, establishes an
agreement for cooperation as a prerequisite for nuclear deals between the US
and any other nation). This was followed by a series of Indo –US military
exercise on the background of the South China Sea dominance of China signifying
a strategic shift. President Obama came as a Chief Guest for the republic day
parades and supported India's aspiration for a permanent membership into the
United National Security Council, India’s temporary exception from importing oil from
Iran, and India’s increased sourcing of Energy (LNG and Crude) from US after
signing the strategic energy partnership bilateral treaty are all examples of this bonhomie. It is also
expected that the visit of President Trump will result in signing of a major
defense deal of procurement of helicopters for the Navy. India’s defense cooperation
with US has resulted in in India being elevated to Tier 1 of the strategic
Trade authorization licence exception which will help India access advanced US
technology.
While the strategic shift has yielded benefits to India, it also
need to be evaluated on what should be India’s long term policy of engagement
of US looking into India’s long standing stand of neutrality in International
affairs. Is it going to be beneficial or not or is the US bonhomie with India
based on the principle of opportunism. These are the issues to be looked into
in India US relationships post the visit of President Trump. The critical views held by the US senate on India’s
recent actions in Kashmir and on the CAA, the US deal with the Taliban for its
withdrawal from Afghanistan, and the US relationship with Pakistan are
all to be waived into our thinking before we finally conclude Kemcho Trump.
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